IMS Scheduling

Improving Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) Task Duration Estimates

, , , ,
Improving Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) Task Duration Estimates

One of the top reasons projects fail is because of poor task duration estimating for an integrated master schedule (IMS). Without accurate and consistent estimates, project outcomes can become unpredictable, leading to missed deadlines, budget overruns, and overall project failure. A realistic schedule is required to place the necessary resources in the correct timeframe to adequately budget the work as well as to produce credible estimates to complete and to forecast completion dates. While missed deadlines and budget overruns are detrimental for any project, there can be additional business ramifications when producing schedules in an Earned Value Management System (EVMS) contractual environment.

While there are effective methods available to improve task duration estimates, they are often underutilized. A common reason for this oversight is the lack of time allocated to developing the project schedule and determining task durations.

During the proposal phase, initial durations are typically estimated at a more summary level than the detailed execution phase. The proposed work is often defined at a level one to two steps higher than where the actual tasks will be performed. After project initiation, the team’s initial effort is to break the work down into more manageable tasks. This decomposition is crucial for achieving more accurate estimates. It’s no surprise, then, that the initial breakdown efforts often result in duration estimates that don’t align with the proposed durations.

Parkinson’s Law tells us that work expands to fill the time available. If task durations are excessively long, costs will inevitably rise. To counter this, it’s important to require estimators to provide both the estimated effort and the duration needed to accomplish the task. This approach helps to gain a better understanding of the scope of the task and to avoid unrealistic estimates. If you see a task that requires 10,000 hours with a duration of 2 weeks, then you immediately would suspect something is wrong with the estimates.

Techniques for Developing More Accurate Task Duration Estimates

What are your options? H&A earned value consultants and senior master schedulers often employ the following techniques to help a client produce a more realistic IMS.

  1. Establish a Probability Goal. It is essential to set clear expectations for the estimating team. Without guidance, teams may default to estimates with a 50/50 probability of success, which is a recipe for failure. Instead, directing the team to aim for estimates within a 75% to 80% probability range can lead to better outcomes.
  2. Break Down Tasks. Decompose tasks into smaller, more manageable components. The further out the task’s horizon, the greater the variability in estimates. For example, asking someone to estimate the drive time from Washington, DC, to Boston without specifying the vehicle, route, limitations, or conditions introduces unnecessary uncertainty.
  3. Use Professional Judgment. Engage someone with experience in the specific type of work required for the task. A seasoned expert will provide more accurate duration estimates based on their knowledge and experience. Often, we ask the potential task manager to do the estimate, but that person may not be the one with the most related experience or knowledge about the work.
  4. Leverage Historical Data. If the task or a similar one has been done before, use that historical data to inform the estimate. This approach provides a realistic benchmark for future estimates.
  5. Use generative AI. If you have access to an AI capability along with access to historical data, that could be an option to leverage the source data using specific prompts to glean relevant information. As with all AI tools, always verify the generated results to ensure it is a useful basis to substantiate the estimate.
  6. Apply Parametric Estimating. When possible, use parametric analysis to estimate the durations. For example, if it took a specific number of days to clean up a certain amount of toxic waste under similar conditions, this data can be used to estimate the duration of a new but comparable task.
  7. Engage Multiple Estimators. Gathering estimates from more than one person helps to reduce individual biases and provides a more rounded estimate.
  8. Apply the Delphi Method. This technique involves three knowledgeable individuals providing estimates or three-point estimates. The initial estimates are analyzed, and the results are shared with the estimators without attributing specific values to any individual. After discussing the findings, the estimators revise their estimates based on the collective insights, leading to a more refined and accurate duration estimate.
  9. Use Three-Point Estimates. Ask estimators to provide best-case (BC), most likely (ML), and worst-case (WC) durations, along with their reasoning. Applying a formula like the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) duration formula (1BC+4ML+1WC)/6 can yield an adjusted and realistic estimate. You can vary the best and worst case estimate for risk if you have information on that.

    To see how this simple approach can work, walk through this exercise. Ask yourself how long it takes you to drive to work most of the time. Let’s say the answer is 45 minutes. Then ask yourself how long it would take on a Sunday morning in the summer when the roads were dry (the best case). Let’s say your answer is 25 minutes. Then ask yourself how long it would take on a Monday morning in the winter during a moderate snow event (the worst case). You tell yourself 90 minutes. Now you have enough information to calculate the PERT duration.

    Best Case = 25 minutes
    Most likely = 45 minutes
    Worst Case = 90 minutes
    PERT Duration = (25 + 180 + 90)/6 = 49 minutes

    Finally, let’s say you ask yourself how likely it is that you end up on the high side instead of the low side. If your answer is it is much more likely to encounter conditions that slow you down, you would modify the formula to use one and a half times the worst case (25 + 180 + 135)/6 = 57 minutes. That longer duration shows the impact of your impromptu risk analysis and provides a duration that has a much higher probability of being achievable.

    Now think about the same scenario but conducted by you interviewing three people who drive the same route to work. That would approximate the Delphi method.
  1. All or something less. It may not be necessary to analyze every task to the degree suggested. Even if you could do the analysis along the top several critical paths that would be an improvement. If you were to apply numerical factors to the tasks in related portions of the project that would be impactful. For example, all mechanical design tasks or all software development tasks.

What is the best approach?

You will need to analyze your project and determine which approach or approaches would yield useful information at a reasonable cost. If you apply your own thinking on how to improve your duration estimates, you will undoubtedly find a method most suitable for your situation. Depending on a project’s complexity and risk factors, you may also find it useful to take a more formal approach. Conducting a schedule risk assessment (SRA), a probabilistic assessment of a project’s outcome, can help you gain a better understanding of where the duration risk exists in the schedule.

H&A earned value consultants and scheduling subject matter experts often assist clients to establish basic guidance to help scheduling personnel to get into the habit of adequately defining tasks and using techniques to improve duration estimates. This is critical to be able to produce well-constructed and executable schedules to improve the likelihood of achieving project technical, schedule, and cost objectives.

H&A offers a range of project scheduling training workshops that can help schedulers to implement industry best practices. These workshops also cover how to take the next step to implement advanced scheduling techniques such as schedule risk assessments to ensure the schedule is realistic and achievable. H&A earned value consultants and master schedulers often provide one-on-one mentoring using the scheduling tool of choice to help scheduling personnel work through the learning curve of using advanced network scheduling techniques to produce executable schedules.  

Call us today at (714) 685-1730 to get started.

Improving Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) Task Duration Estimates Read Post »

Along the IMS Time-Now Line

, , , , , , , , , , , ,

Arrows moving to the right.Recently one of our consultants was instructing a session on the Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) with a group of project personnel from one of our larger clients. The group was a mixture of beginners with no real experience in schedules and some much more experienced practitioners; some with more than 10 years of experience. The mixture made it somewhat difficult, but it also made for some interesting discussions that might have been missed in a more homogenous group. One of those things was the usefulness or importance of the “time-now” line.

When the group was asked about the importance of the time-now line and what information could be easily gained from a look at the line, there was silence. The beginners did not have a clue but also none of the experienced people had any response. What should have been a short discussion with just one “slide” as a visual, turned out to be a longer and more informative session on this topic.

The time-now line has different names in different software tools but it refers to the data date, or status date, of the schedule. That also would be the first day of the remainder of the schedule. When a scheduler sorts tasks by date, the time-now line runs down the screen and forms a highly useful visible reference.

In the small example below [see Figure 1], you can see the time-now line and visually assess the situation. Time-now is shown by a vertical line at the beginning of September, so all remaining effort has been scheduled to after that date. In other words, no work can be forecasted in the past. A walk down the line shows Task 1 has both started and completed. Task 2 started but has not completed. In fact, the remaining work in Task 2 has been pushed out by the time-now line. The start of Tasks 5 and 9 are also being pushed out by the time-now line. In most real project schedules, filters and other techniques may be needed to isolate information like this; but in our small example, we can simply “eyeball” the time-now line and see valuable information. Task 9 starts the critical path shown in red tasks.

 

The project start date was August 1. The status date is September 1. Tasks 2, 5, and 9 show gaps from the predecessor to their starts. in the case of Task 2 the cap is to the start of the remaining work. This gap is caused by the time-now being set to September 1 with all remaining work starting after that. The critical path is being pushed by time now.Figure 1

 

A slightly different setup for that same small example [see Figure 2] shows something interesting. The time-now line is still at the beginning of September. But now there is a gap between time-now and work on the critical path. This is an unusual situation and should be investigated for the root cause. It is possible this is an accurate portrayal of the situation, but regardless of the cause, it must be verified and explained.

 

Time now is still at September 1. There is a gap on the critical path at the start of Task 9 which, in this case, is caused by a Start-No-Earlier-Than constraint.Figure 2

 

In yet one more variation [see Figure 3], we see that a broken link results in Task 8 ending up on the time-now line. A task without a predecessor will be rescheduled to start at the earliest possible time (if the task is set to be “As Soon As Possible”). And the earliest possible time is the time-now line; the beginning of September. Just as broken things fall to the floor in real life, “broken things” fall to the time-now line in a schedule. Un-started work can land there. Un-finished work can land there. And un-linked work can land there.

It is further possible to see that Task 2 has had an increase in the remaining duration that has driven it onto the critical path. Task 2 at this moment is the most important task on the entire project. A slip to Task 2 will drive out the end date for the entire project. One question that needs answering is what is holding up Task 2?

If the display had been sorted by increasing total float/slack and the usual cascade by date, then the critical path would be starting at the upper left-hand corner; like the critical path in this example. The action on the project is almost always on the time-now line and the most important action, when sorted as described, will be at the upper left-hand corner.

 

Task 2 is now driving the critical path. Task 8 has fallen back to the time now line. The constraint on Task 9 has been removed.Figure 3

 

So, a walk down the time-now line can help us see the critical path action, find broken parts of the schedule, and locate unusual circumstances that need our attention. Our recommendation is to look at the time-now line any time there is data being changed in the IMS. This will help you catch issues early and keep the schedule cleaner.

Along the IMS Time-Now Line Read Post »

Scroll to Top