Earned Value Consultant

Maintaining a Credible Estimate at Completion (EAC)

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Issues with a contractor’s estimate at completion (EAC) process is a common Earned Value Management System (EVMS) surveillance finding H&A earned value consultants are frequently asked to help resolve. The EAC process can become a major issue when the government customer lacks confidence in the contractor’s EAC data.

Why does a credible EAC matter? 

EACs are important because they provide a projection of the cost at contract or project completion, which is also an estimate of total funds required by the customer. It matters because EACs represent real money. When the most likely EAC exceeds the negotiated contract cost, the contractor’s profit margins may be at risk. It also creates a problem for the customer when the most likely EAC exceeds the funding limits. The customer may either need to secure additional funding or modify the work scope. No one likes cost growth surprises.

Figure 1 illustrates comparing the funding limits with the range of contractor’s EACs to verify they are within the bounds of the funding available to complete the scope of work.

Graph Showing Contractor’s Management EACs with Funding Profile
Figure 1: Contractor’s Management EACs with Funding Profile

What determines whether an EAC is credible? 

A credible EAC reflects the cumulative to date actual costs of work performed (ACWP) (costs the contractor has already incurred) plus the current estimate to complete (ETC). The ETC must provide a realistic estimate of what is required to complete the remaining authorized work and represents the time phased estimate of future funds required.

EACs should be based on performance to date, actual costs to date, projections of future performance, risks and opportunities, economic escalation, expected direct and indirect rates, and material commitments. As illustrated in Figure 1, a project manager should routinely evaluate their project’s ACWP, ETC, and EAC along with the funding profile to verify amounts expended and committed are within the parameters of available contract funds. 

What project control practices help to ensure EACs are realistic?

Three recommended best practices H&A earned value consultants either help implement or have observed that ensure the EAC data are credible include:

  1. Actively maintain the bottom up ETC data every reporting cycle. This starts with updating the current schedule resource loaded activities based on performance to date and the latest planning (timing and resource requirements) for work in progress as well as upcoming work effort. This becomes the basis for updating the time phased cost estimate for work in progress that is added to the cumulative to date actual costs or the cost estimate for future work/planning packages. The current schedule and time phased cost estimate should be in alignment. When data is routinely maintained, it minimizes the time required to update it and capture useful information. The control account managers (CAMs) have the basis to substantiate their estimates as well as relevant data they can use to analyze and take action to address a significant variance at completion (VAC).
  2. Actively monitor project EACs from the top down. Project managers that actively maintain a range of data driven EACs (best case, most likely, and worst case) are better prepared to verify the bottom up EACs are realistic, handle realized risks, and prepare for emerging risks. They routinely incorporate metrics such as comparing the Cost Performance Index (CPI) to the To Complete Performance Index (TCPI) to test the realism of the EAC. They can demonstrate their EACs are credible with backup data, rationale, and narratives they provide to management as well as the customer. 
  3. Maintain open communications at all levels of management, subcontractors, and the customer. As a result, project personnel can quickly handle issues or project changes. The project manager is often the main conduit to handle impacts to their project’s EAC such as when corporate management changes direct or indirect rates, changes in resource availability, a spike in commodity prices, or the customer modifies the scope of work or funding.

What are some things to avoid?

H&A earned value consultants often observe practices that negate the purpose and value of maintaining the ETC and EAC data. Issues with the EAC process are often captured in the government customer’s EVMS corrective action requests (CARs). The CARs frequently point out ad-hoc processes or corporate culture issues. Examples:

  1. Management provides a target EAC number the CAMs must match. This approach increases the likelihood the ETC data are unrealistic. There may be a valid reason for this directive as a management what-if exercise. When done as a routine management strategy, it diminishes the value of the ETC data to manage the project’s remaining work and prevent financial surprises. The CAMs should be in a position where they can substantiate their schedule timeline, resource requirements, and cost estimate to complete the remaining work. The project manager should be in a position where they can verify the bottom up ETC/EAC data to establish a level of confidence in their project level EACs they provide to management as well as the customer.
  2. Project personnel take the path of least resistance. This is often a result of a lack of direction or an established process. They either do not create the ETC data or maintain it on a routine basis. A typical approach is to set a cost management tool option where the EAC is static; the CAM may manually update the EAC number once a quarter. The ETC data has limited to no value. This usually surfaces as a major issue when the contractor must provide an Integrated Program Management Report (IPMR)  Format 7 (time phased history and forecast data), or the Integrated Program Management Data and Analysis Report (IPMDAR) Contract Performance Dataset (CPD) to the customer. The customer quickly discovers the ETC data is lacking for their own analysis.
  3. Schedule and cost are created/maintained separately. This often occurs when the schedule and cost tools are not integrated for the duration of the project. A good deal of effort may go into ensuring the schedule and cost data are in alignment to establish the performance measurement baseline (PMB). The integrated master schedule (IMS) resource loaded activities may be used as the basis for the time phased budget baseline in the cost tool. However, the ETC data in the current schedule may not exist or actively maintained. Project personnel only maintain the ETC data in the cost tool and fail to verify it aligns with the current schedule activities (timing) and resource requirements. Once again, personnel are often lacking an established best practice EAC process.

Pay Attention to Your EAC Process

The ETC and EAC data are just as important as the PMB budget plan because it represents real money. As discussed in the blog How Integrated Baseline Reviews (IBRs) Contribute to Project Success, the goal of the IBR is to verify an executable PMB has been established for the entire contractual scope of work. Similarly, the goal of maintaining a credible ETC and EAC is to verify an executable plan is being regularly updated to accomplish the remaining scope of work within the contract’s schedule, cost, and funding targets. The customer must have confidence in the contractor’s ability to deliver and meet the remaining contract objectives.

The best way to avoid an EAC process CAR is to ensure you have an established process personnel follow, and they know how to use the schedule and cost tools to consistently maintain quality ETC and EAC data. H&A earned value consultants have worked with numerous clients to design or enhance their EAC process. H&A also offers EVMS training workshops that include content on how to develop a realistic EAC. Regular EVMS training always helps to reinforce best practices. Call us today at (714) 685-1730 to get started.

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EVM Training – Decision Making & Charlie Munger – Part 1

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Large Radio Antenna with Dawn Sky in the Background image for EVM Training - Decision Making and Charlie Munger blog post

Tendency Toward Misjudgment – Part 1

Charlie Munger and EVM Training

So, what does Charles (Charlie) T. Munger, Vice Chairman of Berskshire Hathaway and partner of Warren Buffet have to do with EVM training? Decision Making.  You can imagine the big-money decisions he has helped Buffett make during the many years of building up the legendary outfit. Along the way, he kept track of the happenings around him that through various speeches and writings espoused some clear thinking. Born in Omaha in 1924, Charlie began working with Warren at Buffett & Son, a grocery store owned by Warren Buffett’s grandfather. Eventually graduating magna cum laude from Harvard Law in 1948, Charlie moved into the business world.

Psychology of Human Misjudgment

This blog is narrowly focused on what I gleaned from Charlie’s writings about the “psychology of human misjudgment.” Looking to see how this information could be used to help guide a EVM training workshop on the topic of decision making, I went through each of the 25 “tendencies” that he defined and discussed. I would never have guessed that we humans have 25 tendencies that impinge on our thinking processes, but after studying his list, I think he nailed it. Most of the tendencies are backed up with some reference to psychological studies; so be assured Charlie did not make them up. This blog will treat them in numerical order and will add thoughts from the Humphreys & Associates earned value training material on decision making that will make the Charlie Munger points more specific to the subject at hand.

In our EVM training material, we emphasize the process of decision making is critical, and Charlie thought so way before I did. Bad decisions can come from good processes, but that is less likely than bad decisions coming from no process or, even worse, from a bad process. At one point Munger advises the use of checklists can help navigate through the minefield of human tendencies toward misjudgment. An amazingly timely idea, because here at Humphreys & Associates we are just wrapping up our work on “The Big Book of Project Management Checklists” that is aimed at doing just that.

Blocking Human Misjudgement

What about human misjudgment? It appears we humans are fraught with innate tendencies that, if not blocked, can lead us to make misjudgments. A misjudgment would be a wrong decision in terms of this blog. With all that follows in the blog about misjudgment, we are trying to discern a sound process for earned value decision making, with tools like decision trees, that can help avoid or counter the influences of the counterproductive tendencies. Developing your decision-making process should involve findings tactics that help you avoid or defeat or neutralize these tendencies in your EVMS processes.

Tendency #1 – Reward and Punishment Super-Response

Let’s cover one tendency as an example. Tendency #1 is called the “Reward and Punishment Super-Response Tendency.” The word “super” attached to the idea of response to reward is to emphasize that this is a case of over responding. We all know people move toward what is incentivized; they seek the reward. It must be obvious that, if the wrong thing is incentivized, people will be moving in the wrong direction. According to Munger, there is a strong tendency to move toward the reward; an overly strong tendency. Charlie cites some great examples from his experience. Your decision-making process should include some “clearing the minefield” efforts early on in the process to make sure that the decision will not be made in a move toward a reward that would be wrong for the situation. A simple example could be that you are involved in deciding about launch-ing a long-term effort that would cost quite a bit that does not have certainty to the outcome. If you are incentivized toward short terms profits, then you have the biased tendency to discard the idea in favor of short term gains.

Deprival Super-Reaction Tendency

There is a potentially related tendency called the “Deprival Super-Reaction Tendency.” This is the tendency to feel more pain from a loss than to feel pleasure from a gain of the same amount or thing. According to this tendency, there is more motivation associated with avoiding pain than making a gain. The see-saw is weighted in one direction. How counterproductive is that tendency toward carefully considered decision-making? If we are trying to make a gain in our decision process, we are not only fighting the facts of the situation but also our innate bias against taking a risk. The idea can be seen in the commonly observed action of throwing good money after bad. A loss is imminent, so the decision is to spend more to head it off to potentially save the day and avoid the pain; is that wise? Think about the situation where someone says or is known to think that “I will not be denied no matter the cost.” You probably do not want that kind of thinking involved in your decision making. Now think about a situation where tendency #1 and tendency #2 both align against one of the options being considered. Would an option that faces the tendency to risk some pain of loss and to move against a potential reward stand a chance if those tendencies were not neutralized?

Blog Series

Hopefully you get the idea now. This blog will be followed by another that covers some of the remaining tendencies identified by Charles T. Munger. I hope to learn more from and will translate what I learn here and in our EVM training material. Stay tuned.

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Project Management: Earned Value Consulting; Could You Use Some?

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Failed Projects

A recent article discussed the results of a survey on the reasons that projects failed. The definition of failure was that the project was abandoned. Abandonment does not occur frequently in the world of government projects; especially defense projects where there should be strong “must have” needs driving the project. These projects tend to persist until completed even though the outcomes are not satisfactory. But there is a lot to learn from the list of reasons for failure.

Of the sixteen reasons listed, the top four had to do with changes to the environment that had given rise to the project. For example, changes in the company priorities was the most often cited reason for abandonment. In that same vein were issues with changing objectives and inaccurate definition of requirements. These types of failures are not topics for this blog since they do not immediately involve execution of the project.

Execution Problems

Lower on the list of those environment related reasons for failure were the ones more related to execution problems. These are of significant interest to a project management using an earned value consulting company such as Humphreys & Associates (H&A). These reasons related more to issues of poor project management that could have been corrected. In this area were reasons like “poor change management,” “inaccurate cost estimates,” “inaccurate time estimates,” and “inexperienced project management.”

The answers given in a survey situation depend very much on the mindset of the person responding. Is the reason really “inaccurate cost estimates” or should it have been “failure to execute to the estimate”? How many times have you seen a problem in execution “swept under the carpet” as being an inaccurate estimate or plan? One of these two answers points to the estimating system and process while the other points to project management. The estimates were generated; and, at some point, they were deemed to be sufficiently detailed to launch the project. If a scrubbed and blessed estimate is “inaccurate” that would still be a failure of project management. If the problem were really a failure to execute, then how easy would it be to blame the problem on poor estimates? This blog will discuss the cited failures as if they were execution failures.

Earned Value Management (EVM) Consultant Specialists

There are situations in life where the need for specialized advice is common and well accepted by us all. When your doctor is unsure of the medical issues, the doctor will send you to a specialist. The reason is obvious. The specialist has learned so much more about a specific problem and has so much experience diagnosing and treating the problem that it would be foolish not to secure the services of that specialist. In fact, it might be malpractice. A project management consultant can be thought of much like a medical specialist.

There are similar situations in business where the need for specialized knowledge is critical. Large companies tend to have in-house legal departments to cover the day-to-day legal issues and tasks that are central to their businesses. However, the need to go to outside counsel for large or unusual issues is accepted. Companies do not hesitate to engage the services of outside law firms to help them through troubled times. Project management consultants are like outside counsel.

What if there were a project management or earned value management situation you have never encountered before? A good example would be the times that H&A has been called in to help clients navigate the unhappy circumstances of needing to go over-target. Going through the over-target-baseline (OTB) or over-target-schedule (OTS) process is not a common experience. It is a tense time when careers can be on the line and the company reputation might also be at risk. It takes specialized knowledge to get it right. In some cases, it even takes the objective view of an outsider to help make the right decisions.

Specialized Knowledge

Another example of specialized knowledge being crucial is when the customer has deemed some issue on the project to be deficient. In some situations, a customer’s Corrective Action Request (CAR) can result in cost penalties and damaged reputations; possibly even worse consequences could result. Engaging the services of an EVM consultant with experience in identifying problems, building Corrective Action Plans (CAP)s, and leading or helping implementing the corrective actions is often a valuable and necessary action. Ask yourself how smart it would be to assume that those who were involved in causing the issue would be capable of creating a satisfactory solution.

These scenarios are aligned with the idea of project management consulting being something you only need in a crisis. There are other non-crisis needs for specialized support. Often H&A is engaged simply to help a client prepare a proposal. A proposal situation puts heavy demands on the company staffing levels and can require areas of specialized knowledge not available in the company. What if the company has never created a fully compliant Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) and they could use help the first time? What if there are not enough trained and experienced schedulers to work on the proposal? What if the company does not have a documented project management system?

Make or Break Opportunities

Projects can be huge and risky. They can be make-or-break opportunities to a company. Where so much can depend on good project management, smart companies recognize the need for an outside opinion and outside talent. Just like the internal legal department, the internal project management group sometimes needs to call on outside subject matter experts. While it might be obvious, let’s look at some reasons why this is true.

There are more ordinary everyday reasons to engage a project management consultant. Perhaps an organization just managed to win a new project bigger than any they have won before. In this case, they may not be ready to handle the project in terms of experience, systems, and even just talented headcount. A project management consulting company such as H&A can bring solutions to your earned value woes. It can also provide temporary training staff to get things going until the client is ready to take over.

Poor Communication

Let’s get back to the survey of reasons that projects failed. Are there issues on the list where project management consulting could have made a difference? Imagine an improved project management process and staff after a period of consulting to support creating or improving systems and training personnel?

The fifth most frequent reason for failure is “poor communication.” A good project management system with trained personnel is all about communication. Communication of plans, communication of progress, communication of issues, and communication of corrective actions are all actions required in a project management system. Quite often the problem of “poor change management,” cited as the sixth most common reason for failure, is reduced or eliminated after using the consulting services of a specialist?

What about the twelfth cited problem of “inadequate resource forecasting”? Would a well built and maintained resource-loaded Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) go a long way in providing forecasts of resource needs and the impacts of not having the resources? In fact, a proper IMS would help with several of the cited reasons for failure, such as inaccurate duration estimates. In fact, the application of a process, such as Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA), with the help of an experienced consultant can identify such issues in advance while there is still time to take action.

Earned Value Training

Disregarding the threat of failure as a motivator, the need for constant improvement should be enough reason to consider a project management consultant. We can all laugh at the time-worn clichés of “not-invented-here” or “we’ve never done it that way;” however, these are clichés for a reason. There is resistance to outside help and there is resistance to change. But outside help can be a great logjam breaker. An experienced and knowledgeable consultant can be your voice when you need someone who has, to use another cliché, “been there and done that.”

In fact, our consultants can laugh when they say they have “been there” and they have more than a T-shirt to prove it.

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