Improving Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) Task Duration Estimates

by Humphreys & Associates on October 1, 2024

Improving Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) Task Duration Estimates

One of the top reasons projects fail is because of poor task duration estimating for an integrated master schedule (IMS). Without accurate and consistent estimates, project outcomes can become unpredictable, leading to missed deadlines, budget overruns, and overall project failure. A realistic schedule is required to place the necessary resources in the correct timeframe to adequately budget the work as well as to produce credible estimates to complete and to forecast completion dates. While missed deadlines and budget overruns are detrimental for any project, there can be additional business ramifications when producing schedules in an Earned Value Management System (EVMS) contractual environment.

While there are effective methods available to improve task duration estimates, they are often underutilized. A common reason for this oversight is the lack of time allocated to developing the project schedule and determining task durations.

During the proposal phase, initial durations are typically estimated at a more summary level than the detailed execution phase. The proposed work is often defined at a level one to two steps higher than where the actual tasks will be performed. After project initiation, the team’s initial effort is to break the work down into more manageable tasks. This decomposition is crucial for achieving more accurate estimates. It’s no surprise, then, that the initial breakdown efforts often result in duration estimates that don’t align with the proposed durations.

Parkinson’s Law tells us that work expands to fill the time available. If task durations are excessively long, costs will inevitably rise. To counter this, it’s important to require estimators to provide both the estimated effort and the duration needed to accomplish the task. This approach helps to gain a better understanding of the scope of the task and to avoid unrealistic estimates. If you see a task that requires 10,000 hours with a duration of 2 weeks, then you immediately would suspect something is wrong with the estimates.

Techniques for Developing More Accurate Task Duration Estimates

What are your options? H&A earned value consultants and senior master schedulers often employ the following techniques to help a client produce a more realistic IMS.

  1. Establish a Probability Goal. It is essential to set clear expectations for the estimating team. Without guidance, teams may default to estimates with a 50/50 probability of success, which is a recipe for failure. Instead, directing the team to aim for estimates within a 75% to 80% probability range can lead to better outcomes.
  2. Break Down Tasks. Decompose tasks into smaller, more manageable components. The further out the task’s horizon, the greater the variability in estimates. For example, asking someone to estimate the drive time from Washington, DC, to Boston without specifying the vehicle, route, limitations, or conditions introduces unnecessary uncertainty.
  3. Use Professional Judgment. Engage someone with experience in the specific type of work required for the task. A seasoned expert will provide more accurate duration estimates based on their knowledge and experience. Often, we ask the potential task manager to do the estimate, but that person may not be the one with the most related experience or knowledge about the work.
  4. Leverage Historical Data. If the task or a similar one has been done before, use that historical data to inform the estimate. This approach provides a realistic benchmark for future estimates.
  5. Use generative AI. If you have access to an AI capability along with access to historical data, that could be an option to leverage the source data using specific prompts to glean relevant information. As with all AI tools, always verify the generated results to ensure it is a useful basis to substantiate the estimate.
  6. Apply Parametric Estimating. When possible, use parametric analysis to estimate the durations. For example, if it took a specific number of days to clean up a certain amount of toxic waste under similar conditions, this data can be used to estimate the duration of a new but comparable task.
  7. Engage Multiple Estimators. Gathering estimates from more than one person helps to reduce individual biases and provides a more rounded estimate.
  8. Apply the Delphi Method. This technique involves three knowledgeable individuals providing estimates or three-point estimates. The initial estimates are analyzed, and the results are shared with the estimators without attributing specific values to any individual. After discussing the findings, the estimators revise their estimates based on the collective insights, leading to a more refined and accurate duration estimate.
  9. Use Three-Point Estimates. Ask estimators to provide best-case (BC), most likely (ML), and worst-case (WC) durations, along with their reasoning. Applying a formula like the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) duration formula (1BC+4ML+1WC)/6 can yield an adjusted and realistic estimate. You can vary the best and worst case estimate for risk if you have information on that.

    To see how this simple approach can work, walk through this exercise. Ask yourself how long it takes you to drive to work most of the time. Let’s say the answer is 45 minutes. Then ask yourself how long it would take on a Sunday morning in the summer when the roads were dry (the best case). Let’s say your answer is 25 minutes. Then ask yourself how long it would take on a Monday morning in the winter during a moderate snow event (the worst case). You tell yourself 90 minutes. Now you have enough information to calculate the PERT duration.

    Best Case = 25 minutes
    Most likely = 45 minutes
    Worst Case = 90 minutes
    PERT Duration = (25 + 180 + 90)/6 = 49 minutes

    Finally, let’s say you ask yourself how likely it is that you end up on the high side instead of the low side. If your answer is it is much more likely to encounter conditions that slow you down, you would modify the formula to use one and a half times the worst case (25 + 180 + 135)/6 = 57 minutes. That longer duration shows the impact of your impromptu risk analysis and provides a duration that has a much higher probability of being achievable.

    Now think about the same scenario but conducted by you interviewing three people who drive the same route to work. That would approximate the Delphi method.
  1. All or something less. It may not be necessary to analyze every task to the degree suggested. Even if you could do the analysis along the top several critical paths that would be an improvement. If you were to apply numerical factors to the tasks in related portions of the project that would be impactful. For example, all mechanical design tasks or all software development tasks.

What is the best approach?

You will need to analyze your project and determine which approach or approaches would yield useful information at a reasonable cost. If you apply your own thinking on how to improve your duration estimates, you will undoubtedly find a method most suitable for your situation. Depending on a project’s complexity and risk factors, you may also find it useful to take a more formal approach. Conducting a schedule risk assessment (SRA), a probabilistic assessment of a project’s outcome, can help you gain a better understanding of where the duration risk exists in the schedule.

H&A earned value consultants and scheduling subject matter experts often assist clients to establish basic guidance to help scheduling personnel to get into the habit of adequately defining tasks and using techniques to improve duration estimates. This is critical to be able to produce well-constructed and executable schedules to improve the likelihood of achieving project technical, schedule, and cost objectives.

H&A offers a range of project scheduling training workshops that can help schedulers to implement industry best practices. These workshops also cover how to take the next step to implement advanced scheduling techniques such as schedule risk assessments to ensure the schedule is realistic and achievable. H&A earned value consultants and master schedulers often provide one-on-one mentoring using the scheduling tool of choice to help scheduling personnel work through the learning curve of using advanced network scheduling techniques to produce executable schedules.  

Call us today at (714) 685-1730 to get started.

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Merging Earned Value Management System Descriptions

by Humphreys & Associates on September 1, 2024

Are there best practices that apply when a company with an approved/certified Earned Value Management System (EVMS) acquires another company that also has an approved/certified EVMS in place? What happens with the EVM System Descriptions as well as related processes and procedures? What about the various project control tools being used? How do you level set the project control proficiency levels of personnel using the EVMS? Schedule and cost level of detail and data architecture also come into play. For example, project performance data is often used at the corporate level for financial analysis, portfolio analysis, and external reporting and may require data to be organized in a specific manner. Is the EVMS providing reliable status, forecast completion date (FCD), and estimate at completion (EAC) information to management? 

What are your options?

H&A earned value consultants have observed different approaches and often assist companies with determining their strategy. Assuming you are the acquiring company, you could:

  1. Require the acquired company to use your EVMS. 
  2. Let them continue using their EVMS for an agreed upon timeframe or indefinitely.
  3. Take the best of both and establish a new and improved EVMS.  

Each option has its pros and cons. There are also other implications for at least the acquired company. DCMA will need to conduct an Integrated Baseline Review (IBR) and/or a compliance review if the acquired company’s EVMS assessment is no longer applicable. If you make significant modifications to your EVM System Description, DCMA will need to review the revised System Description to determine whether it still complies with the EIA-748 Standard for EVMS guideline requirements.

Things to Consider

  • What do you want to achieve?

    If the goal is to establish a common EVM System Description across the corporation, the strategy will need to reflect that. Define the business objectives that clearly articulate the benefits of using a standardized approach that can help to create and implement the plan to achieve your goal. In this example, that could narrow your path forward to either option 1 or 3 depending on the state of your EVMS.

  • What is the state of your current EVM design and System Description?

    Do you already have a best in class corporate level system in place? If yes, option 1 is a good fit. The strategy would be to create a plan to transition the acquired company to your EVMS. A single EVMS is easier to maintain and to train people on how to use it effectively. Commonality makes it easier to move personnel between projects.

    Perhaps your company is fine with different EVM Systems at a business unit level. For example, perhaps the business units have a different customer base (DoD versus DOE), and the requirements are different. In this case, it may make sense to go with option 2. We recommend being prepared to do an in-depth assessment of the acquired company’s EVMS to become familiar with it, gain an understanding of how project personnel use it, and evaluate the quality of the schedule and cost data. It is imperative that you have a good understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the acquired company’s EVMS. You may find best in class practices that you could incorporate into your EVMS. On the other hand, you may discover issues you need to address with a corrective action plan. Some of them may be as simple as providing desktop instructions for the schedulers or control account managers (CAMs). The more difficult are actions taken to change the culture such as resistance to providing visibility into the data.

    Option 3 may be good path in situations where you know there are components in your EVMS that need to be streamlined or enhanced. It provides an opportunity to fix known issues with your EVM design or System Description. It could also be an opportunity to replace a mix of software tools or home-grown tools with a standard set of commercial off the shelf (COTS) schedule, cost, and analysis as well as risk tools. Integration with a standard Agile tool may also come into play. In this case, your strategy may be to create a working group from both companies to create a best in class corporate EVMS. 

  • Structure of the EVM System Description.

    There may be “layers” to it that makes it easier to accommodate unique business unit environments. For example, perhaps you have established a corporate level System Description that states what the company does to comply with the EIA-748 guidelines when an EVMS is contractually required or what is required to satisfy internal management needs for project/portfolio analysis (no external customer management system or reporting requirements). The corporate level system should define specific rules all business units are expected to follow. The business units define how they comply with the corporate requirements (their specific process). A good approach is to also allow project managers to define project directives to specify project unique requirements as long as they comply with the corporate and business unit requirements.

    In this example, option 1 is a good fit. The strategy would be to help the acquired company to establish revised EVM processes that align with the corporate requirements similar to other business units in the corporation.

Other Considerations

Your strategy and tactical plan must address identified risks and opportunities. A common challenge is resistance to change. A potential risk mitigation approach could be to bring in the acquired company’s personnel as part of a joint corporate management team with the goal to create a single best in class EVMS. It is essential to establish ownership in the new or revised process. An example from one H&A client illustrates the importance of taking ownership in the EVMS as part of a successful transition.

“We didn’t force what we had on them, nor did we give in. We have a corporate EVM System Description. When we acquired the company, we brought them in to do a revision of the System Description, as the decision was made that we will operate as one company. They are now using that System Description and are using the same EVM cost tool. We are working other initiatives to harmonize other systems. It was surprisingly not contentious. We incorporated their leads into the organization with minimal disruption. We also have corporate training, which they supported and some of their legacy folks are leading that. The company as a whole changed, rather than forcing our way on them. Not many major differences between us, but inclusion of the folks from the acquired company as well as business groups was key. Frankly, one of our legacy divisions was harder to work with than anyone from the company we acquired.” – EVMS Director, A&D Contractor

While this is an example of where things went well, your risk mitigation approach should be prepared for situations where the teams do not agree upon the documented process, tools, or training that could result in an impasse. Knowledge of the current internal environment and personnel mix can help to determine the best mitigation strategy. A strong leadership team must be in place to ensure teams are working to achieve common objectives and to amicably resolve differences with a target completion date.

The tactical plan must also include a robust training plan that covers the revised EVMS process, procedures, and any new tools. This is critical to ensure project personnel gain a good understanding of what changed, who is responsible for what, workflow, requirements such as data coding or level of data detail, and how to use the tools effectively. Role based training is often useful to ensure project control personnel, schedulers, CAMs, and others are following the documented procedures specific to their day-to-day tasks. Desktop instructions are also useful to ensure project personnel are using the software tools effectively in alignment with the documented process and procedures.

What to do if you find yourself in this situation?

It often helps to start with a gap analysis of your or the acquired company’s EVM design and System Description as well as assess how project personnel implement the system and the quality of the data. H&A earned value consultants often conduct an EVMS gap analysis to provide a fact-based and independent analysis of the EVMS, project personnel proficiency levels, and quality of the schedule and cost data. Once you are able to identify and quantify the strengths and weaknesses of the system, you are in a better position to determine your best strategy that aligns with your corporate business objectives and goals.

Over the years, H&A earned value consultants have observed first-hand what strategies and tactics for designing and implementing a best in class EVMS ensures success in a variety of business environments. We can also help you avoid common pitfalls that can derail the best laid plans – it is often the case a client didn’t realize there were hidden risks, or they had made incorrect assumptions.

We can help you determine the right strategy for your situation. Call us today at (714) 685-1730 to get started.

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