Comparing the Efficacy of Independent Estimate at Completion (IEAC) Methods Using Real Project Data

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Comparing the Efficacy of Independent Estimate at Completion (IEAC) Methods Using Real Project Data

“Data! Data! Data!” he cried impatiently. “I can’t make bricks without clay.”

-Sherlock Holmes, The Adventure of the Copper Beeches

There are many discussions about EACs and evaluating EACs including using Independent EAC (IEAC) formulae to compare with the contractor EACs. With good reason, we should wonder how accurate are those IEACs that we use so often and sometimes make decisions based on them. Are we misjudging contractor’s EACs based on formulae that are weak or inappropriate?

Humphreys & Associates has initiated a study to determine how accurate IEACs are, and we would like your help. The study will compare different IEAC formulae against the Program Manager (PM) most likely EAC at the 25, 50, and 75 percent complete point for completed projects. The objective is to assess how closely the IEACs and PM most likely EAC were able to predict the final cost outcome for the project.

How Accurate are IEAC Formulae?

Many formulae exist for using recorded data from an earned value management system (EVMS) to make independent estimates of the final cost at completion (EAC) for the element in question. The element might be a control account, a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) element, or even an entire project.

What is not known is how accurate these methods are at forecasting the final actual cost for the project. This study hopes to determine that answer.

Real World IEAC Data

This study was initiated by collecting earned value data from 12 completed projects. We need projects that are completed because, on a completed project, the final actual outcome is known. We collected project data at the 25, 50, and 75 percent complete points. At each of these points, the IEAC formulae were applied to determine how closely they were able to predict the final actual cost outcome for the project. The quest is to learn how the various IEACs performed. Is any one of them more accurate than the others?

From this investigation, any indication of the relative efficacy of the formulae would be used to inform future use of the IEAC methods.

Our Method for Testing IEACs

In general, the IEAC approach is to use existing recognized formulae. We have chosen these IEACs as a starting point:

  • IEAC 1 = BAC/CPIe at the percent point reported. This formula can be stated in words as “the entire project is performed at the same efficiency as experience to date.”
  • IEAC 2 = ACWP + [BCWR/CPI (.5) + SPI (.5)]. This formula uses weighted SPI and CPI which theoretically allows for sensitivity to both cost and schedule historical performance. The weights used in this application are even at .50 and .50.
  • IEAC 3 = ACWP + [BCWR/CPI x SPI]. This formula uses the SPI and CPI multiplied together which theoretically allows for sensitivity to both cost and schedule performance to date.
  • IEAC 4 = ACWP + BCWR. This formula assumes the remaining work will be done as budgeted with no factoring.

One additional non-traditional IEAC will be used.

IEAC 5 = Use of IEAC 2 weighted SPI and CPI but decreasing the proportion applied to the SPI as the percent of project completion increases. In other words, the impact of schedule performance diminishes as the project becomes closer to completion.

We will also take the average of all the formulae to see how that works.

Initial Data Set

One aerospace contractor and one US Government agency have provided the required data for 12 completed projects with an interest in the outcome of the study. The source of the data and the specific projects will not be disclosed in the study.

These real-world projects did not have an exact 25%, 50%, or 75% dataset. The closest dataset to each of those completion percentages was used. One example dataset looks like this (color coding should be ignored):

Example Product Data

How can you help?

We need more project data to gather enough varying project outcomes to make the test realistic. We do not plan to keep the types of projects or products separate but will take all the data we can get and look at them all.

Please consider providing data for the study. We have created an Excel spreadsheet template to help gather project data in a common format for analysis. You can download this template here. Add as many tabs as needed for each project. Send your completed spreadsheet to humphreys@humphreys-assoc.com.

In a separate blog we will outline other help we need to complete the study and to analyze the results.

IEAC_Study_Project_Data_Template-Rev-06052023Download

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Tips for Producing an Earned Value Management System Description

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Tips for Producing an EVM System Description Blog Post Banner Image.

There are a variety of ways a contractor can produce the documentation that describes their Earned Value Management System (EVMS), how it is implemented, used, and maintained. This is typically referred to as the EVM System Description (SD), though other names may be used. For example, it could be titled the Integrated Project Management System Description or Project Controls System Description to align with corporate or contractual naming conventions. EVM practices may be just one part of their overall project management system.

Regardless of the title, a contractor with an EVMS contractual requirement must be able to provide the necessary documentation to their customer to demonstrate their system complies with the EIA-748 Standard for EVMS guidelines. This includes any additional implementation guidance associated with the government agency responsible for conducting EVMS certification or validation reviews.

What is the purpose of an EVM System Description?

There are two purposes for an EVM SD; one is internal, the other is for the external customer.

The primary user of the EVM SD is project personnel such as project managers, project controls, schedulers, and control account managers (CAMs) responsible for implementing the EVMS on their project. It is essential they have a clear understanding of the required corporate EVM process and procedures as well as how to meet the intent of the EIA-748 guidelines using the applicable schedule, cost, analysis, risk, and other project control toolsets.

The government customer uses the EVM SD to gain an understanding of the contractor’s EVMS. The EVM SD must adequately document how the contractor’s system meets the intent of the EIA-748 guidelines. It should include a map of the EVM SD content to the EIA-748 guidelines or similar government customer checklist. The purpose of a government agency’s compliance review is to conduct a comprehensive assessment of a contractor’s EVMS. This includes the EVM SD as well as related processes and procedures. They also assess how the contractor has implemented the EVMS to verify the EVMS is providing timely, reliable, and auditable information.

Once the Cognizant Federal Agency (CFA) has determined the contractor’s EVMS complies with the EIA-748 guidelines, they conduct routine surveillance to ensure the contractor’s system as documented in the EVM SD and implemented on projects continues to comply with the EIA-748 guidelines. The contractor’s EVM SD is also a typical artifact required for an Integrated Baseline Review (IBR).

What needs to be included in the EVM SD?

An EVM SD should explain the methodology the contractor uses to comply with the EIA-748 guidelines as well as any government agency specific requirements. For example, DCMA uses the DoD EVMS Interpretation Guide (EVMSIG) and their Earned Value Management System Center Business Practice (BP) documents such as the BP 2 EVM System Description Review attachment EVMS Cross Reference Checklist (CRC). The DOE Office of Project Management (PM) uses their EVMS Compliance Review Standard Operating Procedure (ECRSOP) and related appendices including their Compliance Assessment Governance (CAG) document and EVMS Compliance Reference Crosswalk (CRC).

The EVM SD should provide an executive overview, reference the corporate EVMS policy, and address all of the subsystems that make up the EVMS. H&A earned value consultants have reviewed countless system descriptions over the years; contractors take a variety of approaches to discuss their subsystems.

Some contractors align with the EIA-748 five process areas (Organizing; Planning, Scheduling, and Budgeting; Accounting; Analysis and Management Reports; and Revisions and Data Maintenance). Others include additional sections covering indirect costs, material management, and subcontractor management. The planning, scheduling, and budgeting process area is often broken down into two sections – one for planning and scheduling and the other to cover work authorization and budgeting (a total of nine process groups). For more discussion, see the blog on the Benefits of Using Nine Process Groups.

A DOE contractor may align with the DOE CAG 10 subprocesses; this is similar to the nine progress group approach plus a section on risk and opportunity management. Other contractors use the project life cycle approach (initiation, planning, execution, monitor and control, and close out) to organize their content.

We recommend including a section on self-governance or self-surveillance (see Benefits of an EVMS Self-Governance Process). As noted in this blog, contractors with an approved EVMS are expected to establish and execute an annual EVMS self-governance plan.

The government customer expects contractors to map their EVM SD content to the applicable government agency EVMS compliance checklist. This is typically an appendix to the EVM SD. In most instances, this is the DCMA BP 2 EVMS Cross Reference Checklist or the DOE ECRSOP EVMS Compliance Reference Crosswalk. These checklists include attributes and/or questions that provide a more comprehensive guide to assess how a contractor meets the intent of the guidelines. The government customer also uses these checklists to identify and record the areas in the system documentation that meet the intent or note deficiencies the contractor needs to address.

The system description should include a concise description of what’s required, diagrams, illustrations, process flowcharts, as well as sample forms and reports with example data. In preparation for a compliance review, H&A earned value consultants often assist clients in creating an EVMS storyboard that visually depicts the entire system using the workflow diagrams along the inputs and outputs, and who is doing what using the applicable tool that demonstrates the system in operation.

Single or multiple documents?

A common question H&A earned value consultants are asked is whether the EVM SD should be a single document that includes the complete set of flowcharts, forms, and reports or a summary document with supporting procedures. Typically, the supporting procedures include the process flowcharts and sometimes the applicable artifacts (forms and reports). There are pros and cons to each approach.

Single Document Approach
Pros Cons
  • Provides an integrated view of the entire EVMS process.
  • Provides a complete discussion of a topic without having to reference multiple documents. Requirement discussion and process flowcharts with responsibility swim lanes along with example inputs/outputs provides a complete picture.
  • Configuration control is easier to manage, only need to make changes in one place.
  • Easier to search for a topic in a single document.
  • Easier to map the contents of a single document to the DCMA or DOE CRC.
  • Easier to create and maintain cross reference links between sections within a single document (See or See Also references).
  • For a company new to EVM, can appear to be an overwhelming task to produce a single, comprehensive document.
  • Can be a lengthy document.
  • More difficult to partition the content to different process owners to complete their section and to combine the content.
Summary Document with Supporting Procedures Approach
Pros Cons
  • Shorter summary document provides a general overview as a quick introduction to the EVMS. Can appear less daunting. Can be used as a strategy to introduce EVM concepts and incorporate into standard business practices.
  • Modular approach to creating and maintaining content. Can be easier to create the initial content.
  • Useful for targeted training using the individual procedures for a process area. For example, training focused on the steps required for developing the WBS and WBS dictionary with expected outputs.
  • Someone must review multiple documents to gain a complete understanding of the EVMS.
  • Fragmented and potentially siloed view of the system.
  • Potentially larger volume of content (over a single document), content is often repeated for context.
  • Configuration control. More difficult to maintain content to ensure consistency in multiple documents as well as maintain cross references between documents.
  • More difficult to map content in multiple documents to the DCMA or DOE CRC.

Regardless of which approach you take, keep in mind that the government customer will be approving the complete set of EVM SD documents (one or multiple documents). Any document referenced in the EVM SD is also subject to review. When you make changes to your EVM SD, the government customer will need to review and approve those changes to ensure continuing compliance with the EIA-748 guidelines. This is a formal process; changes must be processed through the contracting officer. 

Need help with your EVM System Description?

Whether you need to update your existing EVM SD or create one, H&A earned value consultants can help you to organize the content and artifacts in alignment with your business requirements. They also work with you to ensure your EVMS satisfies the EIA-748 guideline requirements as well as government agency specific requirements. H&A often assists with designing an EVMS and ensuring the project control software tools are configured to support the EVMS as well as verifying the quality of the data. For clients new to EVM, H&A offers a template that provides the basis to develop an EVM SD. This template is intended to assist clients with designing and implementing an EVMS that meets EIA-748 guideline requirements as well as the more rigorous requirements of specific government customers.

Call us today at (714) 685-1730 to get started.

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Using Earned Value Management (EVM) Performance Metrics for Evaluating EACs

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A previous blog, Maintaining a Credible Estimate at Completion (EAC), discussed why producing a realistic EAC is essential to managing the remaining work on a contract. Internal management and the customer need visibility into the most likely total cost for the contract at completion to ensure it is within the negotiated contract cost and funding limits.

As noted in the earlier blog, one common technique to test the realism of the EAC is to compare the cumulative to date Cost Performance Index (CPI) to the To Complete Performance Index (TCPI).

Example of Using the Metrics for Evaluating Data

One example of documented guidance to industry for evaluating the realism of the EAC is the DOE Office of Project Management (PM) Compliance Assessment Governance (CAG) 2.0, and the related DOE EVMS Metric Specifications they use to assess the quality of schedule and cost data. This blog highlights the use of this guidance and how any contractor can incorporate similar best practices to verify EACs at a given WBS element, control account, or project level are realistic.

To refresh, the CPI is the efficiency at which work has been performed so far for a WBS element, control account, or at the total project level. The formula for the cumulative to date CPI is as follows.

Best practice tip: To ensure a valid CPI calculation, verify the BCWP and ACWP are recorded in the same month for the same work performed.

The TCPI provides the same information, however, it is forward looking. While the CPI is the work efficiency so far, the TCPI is the efficiency required to complete the remaining work to achieve the EAC. The formula for the TCPI is as follows.

TCPI Formula

Best practice tip: To ensure a valid TCPI, verify the BCWP and ACWP are recorded in the same month for the same work performed, and the BAC and EAC are for the same work scope. In other words, the scope of work assumptions are the same for the budget and remaining cost. This is why anticipated changes should not be included in the EAC.

The DOE uses the CPI in two of their assessment metrics and the TCPI in one, however, these are critical metrics partly because they are the only ones used to assess two different data evaluations: 1) commingling level of effort (LOE) and discrete work, and 2) EAC realism.

Commingling LOE and Discrete Work

The first use of CPI (no TCPI in this metric) falls under the Budgeting and Work Authorization subprocess. The primary purpose is to evaluate the effect of commingling LOE and discrete work scope has on control account metrics. The basic premise for this metric is that if the CPI for the LOE scope is significantly different than that for the discrete, the mixture of LOE in that control account is likely skewing overall performance reporting.

Here is the formulation DOE uses.

C.09.01:  Control Account CPI delta between Discrete and LOE >= ±0.1

X = Number of incomplete control accounts (WBS elements) in the EVMS cost tool, where

  1. The LOE portion of the budget is between 15% and 80% of the total budget, and
  2. The difference between the CPI for the discrete work and the LOE work is >= ±0.1.
Y = Number of incomplete control accounts (WBS elements) in the EVMS cost tool.
Threshold = 0%

Best practice tip: Run this metric quarterly on your control accounts that commingle LOE and discrete work packages. When there is a significant discrepancy between the performance of the LOE versus discrete work effort, consider isolating the LOE effort from the discrete effort at the earliest opportunity. An example could be the next rolling wave planning window or as part of an internal replanning action. Alternatively, it may be necessary to perform the calculations at the work package level to assess the performance of just the discrete effort when it is impractical to isolate by other means.

Process and procedure tip: Ensure the LOE work packages within a control account are kept to minimum (typically less than 15%), during the baseline development phase. This helps to prevent discrete work effort performance measurement distortion during the execution phase. A useful best practice H&A earned value consultants have helped contractors to implement during the budget baseline development process is to perform an analysis of the earned value methods used within a control account and the associated work package budgets. This helps to verify any LOE work packages are less than the 15% threshold for the control account. In some instances, it may be logical to segregate the LOE work effort into a separate control account. The objective is to identify and resolve the issue before the performance measurement baseline (PMB) is set.

EAC Realism

One DOE metric uses the TCPI and this involves a comparison to the CPI. This falls in the Analysis and Management Reporting subprocess. This DOE EVMS Metric Specification states: “This metric confirms that estimates of costs at completion are accurate and detailed.” As noted above, the metric compares the cost performance efficiency so far to the cost efficiency needed to achieve the EAC and is specific to the EAC a control account manager (CAM) would review for their scope of work. Depending on the level actual costs are collected, this analysis may need to be performed at the work package level instead of the control account level.  

Here is the formulation DOE uses assuming actual costs are collected at the work package level.

F.05.06:  Work Package CPI – EAC TCPI > ±0.1
X = Number of incomplete (>10% complete) work packages where CPI –TCPI > ±0.1.
Y = Number of incomplete (>10% complete) work packages in the EVMS cost tool.
Threshold = 5%

There is no requirement that the forecast of future costs has a linear relationship with past performance. While there may be legitimate reasons why future cost performance will fluctuate from the past, outside reviewers who receive EVM data will look for a trend or preponderance of data that would indicate the EACs are not realistic. When a significant number of active work packages are outside the ±0.1 CPI-TCPI threshold, it is an indication that the EACs are not being maintained or are driven by factors other than project performance.

Best practice tip: Run this metric every month for each active work package prior to month-end close. For those work packages outside the ±0.1 threshold, review the EAC to ensure it is an intentional forecast of costs given the current conditions.

Process and procedure tip: One of the training courses H&A earned value consultants often conduct is a Variance Analysis Reporting (VAR) workshop. This workshop is designed to help CAMs become more proficient with using the EVM metrics to assess the performance to date for their work effort, identify the root cause of significant variances, and document their findings as well as recommended corrective actions. This analysis includes verifying their estimate to complete (ETC) is a reasonable assessment of what is required to complete the remaining authorized work and their EACs are credible.

 

Additional References

Further discussion on using the CPI and TCPI to assess the EAC realism at the project level can be found in the DOE CAG, Analysis and Management reporting subprocess, Estimates at Completion. This section provides a good overview of comparing the cumulative to date CPI to the TCPI as well as comparing an EAC to calculated independent EACs (IEACs) for further analysis to assess the EAC credibility. 

Interested in learning more about using EVM metrics as a means to verify EACs at the detail or project level are realistic? H&A earned value consultants can help you incorporate best practices into your processes and procedures as well as conduct targeted training to improve your ETC and EAC process. Call us today at (714) 685-1730.

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Benefits of an EVMS Self-Governance Process

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Contractors with a cognizant federal agency (CFA) approved or certified Earned Value Management System (EVMS) are expected to establish and execute an annual EVMS self-governance plan. Sometimes also called self-surveillance or self-assessment, the objective is the same. The contractor is responsible for establishing an internal process to ensure their EVMS, as implemented at the contract/project level, continues to:

  • Provide valid, reliable, and auditable information for visibility into technical, schedule, and cost progress with fact-based performance analysis. Project personnel have timely information about actual conditions, trends, and potential problems to implement effective corrective actions.
  • Maintain the integrity of the performance measurement baseline (PMB) for measuring completed work and to manage the remaining work.
  • Comply with the EIA-748 Standard for EVMS guidelines.

Equally important, the contractor is responsible for ensuring project personnel are:

  • Following the process and procedures described in their approved EVM System Description.
  • Establishing and maintaining quality schedule, cost, and risk/opportunity data.
  • Routinely using the EVMS (process, procedures, and tools) and EVM data to proactively manage their work effort.

Why is a self-governance process important?

With an established self-governance process and data-driven analytics, a contractor can objectively demonstrate to their customer that EVM and the use of EVM data is an integral part of their project management process. Establishing a culture of self-disclosure of issues and resolution ensures the EVMS is actively maintained, and project personnel understand the importance of their role in implementing the EVMS. Everyone must have confidence in the EVMS to provide timely, relevant, and actionable information to effectively manage and control projects.

An effective self-governance process provides the structure to routinely observe and assess how the EVMS is implemented on projects. This structured process documents what is assessed and how it is assessed using defined objective measures such as data quality metrics that can be analyzed over time to track the occurrence and resolution of issues.

What are the benefits of implementing a self-governance process?

There are a number of benefits to implementing a self-governance process for the contractor as well as the government customer.

The contractor’s management benefits from increased visibility into the “health” of the EVMS. Consistently verifying the system is implemented and used as intended instills confidence. They know they can depend on the EVMS to provide timely, reliable, and actionable information for visibility and control.

Routinely analyzing the results from the self-governance activities provides fact-based information a contractor can use to implement actions that improve the EVMS process and procedures, the means and methods project personnel use to implement the EVMS, or the training methods and content. With a structured and repeatable process in place, the contractor can:

  • Quickly identify and quantify process, people, or tool issues as well as the potential impact to meeting project objectives. Early identification of a problem often helps to mitigate the impact to the project.
  • Identify the root cause of the issue. Is it a recurring theme (a systemic issue) or a unique to a single project? This helps to determine the best way to resolve the issue.
  • Determine what actions are the most effective in mitigating the impact or resolving the root cause. Measuring and verifying outcomes helps to ensure the corrective action achieves the desired result.
  • Identify best in class practices that could be used on other projects. This is often overlooked as a positive outcome of the self-governance process that encourages continuous system improvements and innovation in project implementations.
  • Provide best practice guidance and support to encourage early correction or quick resolution of implementation issues. This helps to increase project personnel proficiency levels. Knowing structured fact-based self-governance assessments are conducted helps to reinforce the message that EVM practices are an integral part of managing projects.

It also builds confidence with the customer. Implementing a process of self-disclosure and corrective actions implemented demonstrates an on-going commitment to maintaining the EVMS. It also demonstrates the willingness to maintain open communications. The benefit of this approach is that it can help to:

  • Reduce the need for onsite government customer reviews or shorten the duration of a surveillance visit. When the contractor is providing regular information about their internal process to verify the health of their EVMS and internal corrective actions, it demonstrates the EVMS is being used as intended and remains compliant with the EIA-748 guidelines.
  • Minimize disruptions to project personnel. This is a direct result of reducing the need for customer reviews. Internal self-governance activities, system or tool improvements, or training can be scheduled to avoid impacting project personnel’s ability to accomplish project objectives.
  • Ensure long-term sustainability of the EVMS. An EVMS should be continually maintained to ensure process, procedures, and tools reflect current requirements. The goal should be to take advantage of opportunities to streamline procedures, improve the quality of the schedule and cost data, upgrade tools, and enable data integration/traceability to reduce the time and effort required to manage project work effort.

What are the characteristics of an effective self-governance process?

An effective self-governance process should be visible, structured, and endorsed by management. Key characteristics and features include:

  • Leadership engagement that encourages continuous improvement and a culture of compliance.
  • Encourages issue identification and tracking with timely closure and verifiable results.
  • A chartered authority structure with cross-organizational engagement that routinely interacts with leadership. This approach develops a broader base of internal expertise and experience.
  • A data-driven methodology to routinely assess system health using clearly defined and independently positioned oversight with a clear line to senior management.
  • Effective, consistent, and defined structured approach that is repeatable and sustainable.
  • Encourages improving project personnel skill levels using proven training  and mentoring techniques.
  • Transparency and means to collect feedback, both critical and praiseworthy.

Need help establishing a self-governance process? 

H&A earned value consultants often assist clients to create and implement a repeatable and sustainable self-governance process to verify their EVMS continues to support the EIA-748 guidelines as well as to assess how project personnel are implementing the EVMS. The objective is to establish a structured process to collect fact-based information useful for creating action plans to address identified deficiencies in the EVMS, how the EVMS is implemented, data quality, or the proficiency levels of project personnel. This structured process is also used to track action plans to closure and verify results.

An industry best practice is to include the EVMS self-governance or self-surveillance process in the EVM System Description along with other artifacts such as the EVMS self-governance charter. Contractors often use government customer surveillance artifacts such as DCMA or DOE automated or manual metrics as the basis to assess the quality of their schedule and cost data as part of their self-governance or self-surveillance process.

If you need help updating your EVM System Description to include a self-governance process, or need to create a self-governance plan, call us today at (714) 685-1730 to get started.

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Maintaining a Credible Estimate at Completion (EAC)

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Issues with a contractor’s estimate at completion (EAC) process is a common Earned Value Management System (EVMS) surveillance finding H&A earned value consultants are frequently asked to help resolve. The EAC process can become a major issue when the government customer lacks confidence in the contractor’s EAC data.

Why does a credible EAC matter? 

EACs are important because they provide a projection of the cost at contract or project completion, which is also an estimate of total funds required by the customer. It matters because EACs represent real money. When the most likely EAC exceeds the negotiated contract cost, the contractor’s profit margins may be at risk. It also creates a problem for the customer when the most likely EAC exceeds the funding limits. The customer may either need to secure additional funding or modify the work scope. No one likes cost growth surprises.

Figure 1 illustrates comparing the funding limits with the range of contractor’s EACs to verify they are within the bounds of the funding available to complete the scope of work.

Graph Showing Contractor’s Management EACs with Funding Profile
Figure 1: Contractor’s Management EACs with Funding Profile

What determines whether an EAC is credible? 

A credible EAC reflects the cumulative to date actual costs of work performed (ACWP) (costs the contractor has already incurred) plus the current estimate to complete (ETC). The ETC must provide a realistic estimate of what is required to complete the remaining authorized work and represents the time phased estimate of future funds required.

EACs should be based on performance to date, actual costs to date, projections of future performance, risks and opportunities, economic escalation, expected direct and indirect rates, and material commitments. As illustrated in Figure 1, a project manager should routinely evaluate their project’s ACWP, ETC, and EAC along with the funding profile to verify amounts expended and committed are within the parameters of available contract funds. 

What project control practices help to ensure EACs are realistic?

Three recommended best practices H&A earned value consultants either help implement or have observed that ensure the EAC data are credible include:

  1. Actively maintain the bottom up ETC data every reporting cycle. This starts with updating the current schedule resource loaded activities based on performance to date and the latest planning (timing and resource requirements) for work in progress as well as upcoming work effort. This becomes the basis for updating the time phased cost estimate for work in progress that is added to the cumulative to date actual costs or the cost estimate for future work/planning packages. The current schedule and time phased cost estimate should be in alignment. When data is routinely maintained, it minimizes the time required to update it and capture useful information. The control account managers (CAMs) have the basis to substantiate their estimates as well as relevant data they can use to analyze and take action to address a significant variance at completion (VAC).
  2. Actively monitor project EACs from the top down. Project managers that actively maintain a range of data driven EACs (best case, most likely, and worst case) are better prepared to verify the bottom up EACs are realistic, handle realized risks, and prepare for emerging risks. They routinely incorporate metrics such as comparing the Cost Performance Index (CPI) to the To Complete Performance Index (TCPI) to test the realism of the EAC. They can demonstrate their EACs are credible with backup data, rationale, and narratives they provide to management as well as the customer. 
  3. Maintain open communications at all levels of management, subcontractors, and the customer. As a result, project personnel can quickly handle issues or project changes. The project manager is often the main conduit to handle impacts to their project’s EAC such as when corporate management changes direct or indirect rates, changes in resource availability, a spike in commodity prices, or the customer modifies the scope of work or funding.

What are some things to avoid?

H&A earned value consultants often observe practices that negate the purpose and value of maintaining the ETC and EAC data. Issues with the EAC process are often captured in the government customer’s EVMS corrective action requests (CARs). The CARs frequently point out ad-hoc processes or corporate culture issues. Examples:

  1. Management provides a target EAC number the CAMs must match. This approach increases the likelihood the ETC data are unrealistic. There may be a valid reason for this directive as a management what-if exercise. When done as a routine management strategy, it diminishes the value of the ETC data to manage the project’s remaining work and prevent financial surprises. The CAMs should be in a position where they can substantiate their schedule timeline, resource requirements, and cost estimate to complete the remaining work. The project manager should be in a position where they can verify the bottom up ETC/EAC data to establish a level of confidence in their project level EACs they provide to management as well as the customer.
  2. Project personnel take the path of least resistance. This is often a result of a lack of direction or an established process. They either do not create the ETC data or maintain it on a routine basis. A typical approach is to set a cost management tool option where the EAC is static; the CAM may manually update the EAC number once a quarter. The ETC data has limited to no value. This usually surfaces as a major issue when the contractor must provide an Integrated Program Management Report (IPMR)  Format 7 (time phased history and forecast data), or the Integrated Program Management Data and Analysis Report (IPMDAR) Contract Performance Dataset (CPD) to the customer. The customer quickly discovers the ETC data is lacking for their own analysis.
  3. Schedule and cost are created/maintained separately. This often occurs when the schedule and cost tools are not integrated for the duration of the project. A good deal of effort may go into ensuring the schedule and cost data are in alignment to establish the performance measurement baseline (PMB). The integrated master schedule (IMS) resource loaded activities may be used as the basis for the time phased budget baseline in the cost tool. However, the ETC data in the current schedule may not exist or actively maintained. Project personnel only maintain the ETC data in the cost tool and fail to verify it aligns with the current schedule activities (timing) and resource requirements. Once again, personnel are often lacking an established best practice EAC process.

Pay Attention to Your EAC Process

The ETC and EAC data are just as important as the PMB budget plan because it represents real money. As discussed in the blog How Integrated Baseline Reviews (IBRs) Contribute to Project Success, the goal of the IBR is to verify an executable PMB has been established for the entire contractual scope of work. Similarly, the goal of maintaining a credible ETC and EAC is to verify an executable plan is being regularly updated to accomplish the remaining scope of work within the contract’s schedule, cost, and funding targets. The customer must have confidence in the contractor’s ability to deliver and meet the remaining contract objectives.

The best way to avoid an EAC process CAR is to ensure you have an established process personnel follow, and they know how to use the schedule and cost tools to consistently maintain quality ETC and EAC data. H&A earned value consultants have worked with numerous clients to design or enhance their EAC process. H&A also offers EVMS training workshops that include content on how to develop a realistic EAC. Regular EVMS training always helps to reinforce best practices. Call us today at (714) 685-1730 to get started.

Maintaining a Credible Estimate at Completion (EAC) Read Post »

Charts and EVMS Health

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Project management is a complex and multi-faceted field that requires a great deal of attention to detail. One of the most important aspects of project management is being able to accurately assess the status and health of a project at any given time. This is where visual representations come in.

Visual Aids

One of the most effective ways to evaluate the status of a project is through the use of charts and graphs. These visual aids allow top management to quickly and easily assess whether a project is getting better or worse, and whether the estimated completion costs (EACs) are achievable.

Raising Questions

In the case of the chart shown in the video, the cost line is trending downwards, which is a cause for concern. This raises the question of whether this negative trend can be reversed to meet even the most pessimistic EAC set by the customer’s program manager.

Management and Customers

While the chart shown in the video is from a program that was ultimately canceled, it serves as an important reminder of the crucial role that visual representations play in project management. These types of charts and graphs are commonly used in briefs presented to top management and customers, as they provide a clear and concise snapshot of the project’s status.

More EVMS Training

Take your EVMS training to the next level with our online course that is based on Humphreys & Associates’ highly regarded three-day EVMS workshop. We also offer a version of this same EVM training course customized for Department Of Defense (DOD) specific EVM requirements, as well as one designed specifically toward NASA’s EVM requirements!

— Purchase the DOD Course —
EVMS DOD Virtual Learning Lab

— Purchase the DOE Version of this Course —
EVMS DOE Virtual Learning Lab

— Purchase the NASA Version of this Course —
EVMS NASA Virtual Learning Lab

EVMS Document Matrix

EVMS Document Matrix

Not sure what the different requirements are between the DOE and NASA? Can’t remember if Cost and Software Data Reporting (CSDR) is required for an NSA contract? Check out our easy to read Earned Value Management Systems Document Matrix

All Online Courses

EVM (Earned Value Management) is a comprehensive approach to project management that covers all aspects of a project, from start to finish. Humphreys and Associates offers EVM courses that will provide you with the necessary skills and knowledge to manage EVM projects of all sizes effectively.

Our EVM courses are suitable for both beginners and professionals who want to improve their skills. We offer a range of course options, including online self-paced and live virtual instructor-led courses, to accommodate different schedules and learning styles. Our instructors are seasoned EVM professionals who will guide you through the process, from setting up your EVM system to closing out your project.

At Humphreys and Associates, you can trust in the quality of our EVM training. Our online EVM courses are budget-friendly and flexible, allowing you to obtain the education you need without any stress. Plus, our courses are designed to be completed in a short time, so you can quickly gain the knowledge you need.

Enroll in our EVM courses today and start enhancing your project management skills.

All Online Courses Available from Humphreys & Associates

Upcoming Public EVMS Workshops

EVM training sessions are offered throughout the year by H&A. EVMS, advanced Earned Value Management techniques, and project scheduling are all covered during these frequent public EVM workshops. These earned value education courses are ideal for anybody wanting to increase their understanding of or application of EVMS or scheduling. Our training programs are suited for individuals with various degrees.

Public EVMS Workshops are offered either in person or online. View our Upcoming EVM Workshop Schedule to find one that best suits your schedule and location.

Upcoming Earned Value Training Public Workshops

Charts and EVMS Health Read Post »

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