Earned Value Management (EVM)

Preventing a Communications Failure

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US Army Helicopter

“What we’ve got here is failure to communicate.”

From the movie Cool Hand Luke”, you would probably remember the famous line, “What we’ve got here is failure to communicate. Some men you just can’t reach. So you get what we had here last week….”

Ask people who work on programs and projects, “From your experience, what are the top 10 reasons that projects fail?”  You will nearly always find, at the top of the list, the cause as being one of poor communications. That’s right, failure to communicate, pure and simple. But maybe not so pure and not so simple.

Establish a Communications Plan

There are so many dimensions to communication that it is advisable, even necessary, to establish a communications plan. Think about all the topics we need to communicate; the list is mighty: goals, schedules, budgets, product requirements, status, problems, successes, forecasts, roadblocks, directions, and so on. So, it makes sense that we should take time to define the communications process and actions in our communications plan.

Assuming we are about to undertake a new project rather than inject ourselves into an ongoing one, we should consider the most natural first step in preventing a communications failure. Just as we must define the product requirements, we should also define the requirements for communications through an analysis. That analysis should be rigorous and should cover all apparent aspects of communications.

  • What do we need to communicate?
  • Who are the providers and the receivers of various communications?
  • What are the form and format for the communication?
  • What are the frequencies required for these communications?

Such a requirements analysis could result in a communications compliance matrix that lists the requirement and provides the method by which the requirement will be satisfied.

Formal and Informal Communication

Two major subsets of communications could be the formal and the informal. To start considering the formal we could go to the contract the Contract Data Requirements List (CDRL) and the many requirements for plans, reports, and other deliverables that are forms of communications. The contract could be the root of a large tree that grows level-by-level. For example, the contract might have the Statement-of-Work (S0W) that tells us to use the systems engineering approach and a CDRL item to provide a System Engineering Management Plan (SEMP) in which another level of communication is revealed. On major contracts the SEMP is but one of several plans that are often required and should be extremely useful in defining the communications plan. The totality of these plans is comprehensive and very detailed.

EVMS Structure

Of interest to us here in this blog is the requirement to manage the program using Earned Value Management Systems (EVMS). A properly implemented EVMS can be the key to avoiding many of the problems of communications that are rolled up into the generic problem of “poor communications.” EVMS is one for the formal requirements that can embody wide ranging forms of communications. In the EVMS we will communicate:

  • Goals for scope, schedule, and budget. These are in various artifacts within the EVMS and provided to the stakeholders. Goals are the topic of the Integrated Baseline Review (IBR) to the extent that the probability of meeting the goals is assessed. Goals are clear when you have an Earned Value Management System.
  • Structure for the project work, people, and resources. EVMS requires a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) to formally define and decompose the work. That means it is open and clear to all on the project what must be done top to bottom and by whom it will be done.

Integrated Master Schedule

Timing for work is established in the comprehensive Integrated Master Schedule (IMS). The IMS, when properly built and coded, provides deep insight into the time plans for the project and the relationships among the players. Topics such as “external dependencies” might have once been an obscure bit of knowledge but in the IMS these are clearly defined, and the logic shows what is dependent on these external inputs to the project.

The IMS communicates the milestones that are to be achieved. Vertical integration from the work tasks to the milestones provides the links that communicate the contributors to any major event. We know what and when we must reach a certain capability, and, with the IMS, we know how we will get there and who will carry us to that goal.

Work Authorization Document

The control account Work Authorization Document (WAD) provides a formal documentation of the baseline agreement on scope, schedule, and budget for the managerial subsets of the total project work. Carving out these manageable sections of work and making formal communication of the goals and responsibilities provides a detailed communication and acceptance for the project goals and the responsibility for their accomplishment. It would be nearly impossible to get lost in the well documented baseline of an EVMS managed project.

Measuring Progress

The status of our project is known by measuring our progress and reporting it formally; these are cornerstones of the EVMS.

  • What should we be doing?
  • What are we doing?
  • Are we meeting our scope, schedule, and spending goals?
  • Where are the problems?
  • What are the root causes of the problems? The impacts?

Communicating all of these up and down the hierarchies and even to the customer provides what should be open and clear communication. The generic complaint of “poor communication” often means “I was surprised.” There should be no surprises in a well run EVMS program.

Future Outcomes

Perhaps the most important thing to communicate is the future outcome. Based on our plans and our status, we are always making projections for the potential outcomes of our project from within our EVMS. The forecast for timing is contained within the IMS. The forecast for spending is contained within the Estimate to Complete (ETC). Each period we update out view of the future and analyze what that means. We use the analysis to undertake corrective action plans that have the intended effect of getting us back on track.

Summary

So, in summary, you should see that poor communications of the items that are within the purview of the program management system (EVMS) should not happen. The EVMS should be one the main pillars of communications plans and processes to prevent a communications failure. The outcome of the program might still be less than desired, but the outcome should have been foreseen and discussed many times within the communications engendered by the EVM System. We should know what we need to do, how we are doing, and where we will end up; and those are all things we need to communicate.

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Summary Level Planning Packages (SLPPs) Misnomer and Alias

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Summary Level Planning Packages (SLPPs) Misnomer and Alias

Origins

One of the confusing terms in the world of Earned Value terminology is “Summary Level Planning Packages” or SLPPs. The term first appeared in Section 1 of the Earned Value Management Implementation Guide (EVMIG), published in 1996 which read:

Summary Level Planning Packages (SLPP) – “When it is clearly impractical to plan authorized work in control accounts, budget and work should be identified to higher WBS or organizational levels for subdivision into CAs at the earliest opportunity.” At this time, EIA-748 was still in draft form.

When 748-1998  was released, the SLPP reference was included with a slight modification to its use being limited to; “work scope for business reasons, is not yet allocated to responsible control accounts”.

With that being said, the term was never specifically included in the EVMS Guidelines (neither the original 35 criteria nor the initial 32 EIA Standard Guidelines)!  The concept itself was again put forth in 748-B where the title changed to “Higher Level Account”, but the SLPP was still not referenced.  With 748-C, the same phrasing is found.  Throughout this time, Guideline 8 has not changed, where it continues to say (underlines added):

“Budget for far-term efforts may be held in higher-level accounts until an appropriate time for allocation at the Control Account level.”

Higher Level Accounts

The term was “Higher Level Accounts” (HLA if you prefer an acronym), and that is the only mention in any of the Guidelines themselves.  In their 25 June 2015 Cross Reference Checklist, however, the DCMA felt the need to clarify the term in several spots:

8.a.(2) Higher level WBS element budgets (where budgets are not yet broken down into control account budgets) also known as a Summary Level Planning Package?

  1. b. Does the Contractor’s system description or procedures require that the sum of control accounts, Summary Level Planning Package (SLPP) budgetsUndistributed Budget(UB), and Management Reserve(MR) reconcile and trace to the CBB or Negotiated Contract Cost (NCC) plus the estimated cost of AUW) for any recognized OTB?
  2. b. Are ETCs developed at the work package, planning package, and Summary Level Planning Package (SLPP) levels, or where resources are identified if lower than the work package level?
  3. j. Are VACs calculated and analyzed with corrective actions at the control account (at a minimum) and Summary Level Planning Package (SLPP) levels?

Created to Help

The term “Higher Level Accounts (HLA)” was created to help contractors comply with the government requirement to distribute budgets from Undistributed Budget (UB) within two full accounting periods after definitization of the contract value.  Many contractors on large, long term contracts were struggling with distributing work and budget for far-term effort about which they were not yet sure where or by whom the work would be performed.

The government allowance to create Higher Level Accounts enabled the contractors to “distribute” the scope and budget to an account – as though it were a Control Account – where someone would “tend it” until the contractor could better define where and by whom the work would be performed.  While in the HLA status, the assigned higher-level manager (the PM or a functional manager designee) would be responsible to ensure the time phasing of the high-level budget was current and that the EAC for the work in the HLA was up to date (rates and time phasing ).  Once the contractor determined the appropriate Control Account Manager responsible for getting the work performed, the scope, schedule, and budget in the HLA would be transferred (distributed) from the Higher Level Account to the Control Account.

Misnomer

As stated earlier, the origin of the term “Summary Level Planning Package – SLPP” is not really known, and it is really a misnomer:

  1. It is not a Summary Level (i.e., other Control Accounts do not summarize into it).
  2. It is really not a Planning Package (the responsible Higher Level Manager does not perform any planning for the work in the HLA – it is just a holding point until it can be distributed to, and planned by, the ultimate CAM).

This last point is where some people become confused.  Being called a “Planning Package,” some people think the SLPP is part of a Control Account that is at a higher level within the Control Account than a Planning Package.   That is another distinction between an SLPP (HLA) and a Planning Package – an SLPP can NEVER be directly detail planned into Work Packages.  The budget in an SLPP must be transferred to a Control Account for that CAM to detail plan the work as necessary over the period of performance of the Control Account.

To be fair to the CAM receiving the HLA/ SLPP scope, schedule, and budget, the project should also have a “Rolling Wave Planning” approach for the HLA/SLPP, one that is at least 30 days in advance of the normal CAM Rolling Wave Planning process.  This would give the CAM time to incorporate the work and budget time phasing into the Control Account (generally in one or more Planning Packages within the Control Account) in order to then be prepared for any necessary detail planning into Work Packages as part of the normal Rolling Wave Planning process.

Final Thought

Some people do not even consider Higher Level Account to be an appropriate description since the HLA/ SLPP is essentially at the same level as the Control Account.  The “Higher Level” aspect means it is assigned to a higher level manager than a Control Account Manager (CAM) for that manager to “tend to” the scope, schedule, and budget until it is distributed to a CAM.

So even though HLA is what it is, SLPP is what it has become.

Higher Level Accounts or Summary Level Planning Packages can be confusing and often an area where projects need some help.   A Humphreys & Associates EVM Consultant can provide the guidance you need for your unique production or development project.  Please contact us for more information.

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EVM Consulting – Modeling & Simulation

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Fighter Jet Air Plain Flying in Front of Moon

Forewarned is Forearmed

Forewarned is forearmed. John Farmer, of New Hampshire, said that in a letter in 1685. But that advice is most likely biblical and very much older. No matter the source of the thought, we should take it as divine guidance if we are project managers. Maybe we should have it cut into a stone tablet, so we can share it with our team members.

Most of our work as project managers is spent in the “controlling” phase which is made up of the three steps “measure, analyze, act.” Our EVMS and IMS exist to be able to support this management function. The measuring part is done very well in our EVMS and our IMS; we know where we are and how we got there. The analyzing is equally well handled in the IMS and EVMS. Only the management task of acting is not well supported. Generally, we lack decision making support and tools.

EVM Consulting - Measure, Analyze, Act

Deterministic Path

No matter how well constructed and how healthy our IMS is, it has a deterministic path forward. The logic links between the activities are there because we expect them to be fulfilled. Indeed, if activity “B” is a finish-to-start successor to activity “A” we fully expect that at some point activity “A” will finish and will provide its output to activity “B”. That is a single path forward and it is a deterministic path. It is also a somewhat simplistic model.

EVM Consulting - Deterministic Relationships in EVMS

Multiple Outcomes

Our management system asks us to perform root cause analysis followed by corrective action. But what if there is more than one corrective action to be taken. And worse; what if the corrective actions can have multiple outcomes with each enjoying its own probability. That means multiple choices and multiple outcomes. How would we show that in our plan? How would we analyze the multiple possible futures that such a situation presents?

Happily, there are ways to model a future without a set path. And once we have the future model, there are also ways to simulate the outcomes to give the probabilities we need to decide which actions to take. We are talking about probabilistic branching, and we are saying that we can build a probabilistic map of the future to use in making decisions; especially making decisions on corrective actions.

Take a simple example of running a test on the project. The expectation is that eventually we will pass the test. We will keep trying until we do. In the IMS deterministic model the test portion of the IMS might look like this:

EVM Consulting - Run the Test then Use the Product

Simulation

We can simulate this situation with different expected durations for the test. That is helpful information, but it does not explain or even capture what is going on in those different durations. It looks like we are just taking longer to do the testing but is that really what is happening? What is going on here? We certainly don’t show that.

In the real world, this simple model might have three potential outcomes. There might be three paths we can take to get to the point where we use the product. Each path has a time and money cost. We might run the test and find that we passed. Or we might have to stop the test for issues on the item or the test setup. We might even fail the test and must correct something about the product to improve our chances of passing a rerun. Eventually we will get to a usable product. But what do we put in our estimate and our plan? What do we tell the resources we need? What do we tell the boss? The customer?

EVM Consulting - Real World Testing

Full Future Model

We now have a much better understanding of the future and can explain the situation. We also can simulate the situation to find out the most likely time and cost outcomes, so we can explain the future without any histrionics or arm waving.
If the issue is important enough we can build out the full future model and simulate it.

EVM Consulting - Full Future Model and Simulation

No matter how far we pursue the model of the future, having a valid model and being able to stand on solid ground are very valuable to us as project managers.

This is not to say that we should model out complex situations as a routine in the IMS. That would be impossible, or at least prohibitively costly. We are saying that when situations arise, we need to be able to use the IMS to help us make decisions.

This type of probabilistic modeling of the future is particularly useful in defining major decision points in our plan. When we reach a decision point the IMS may have multiple branches as successors but that implies we take every branch and that is not valid. Modeling each branch and its probabilities is valid. In the example below, where the milestone represents a decision point, we have shown three possible paths to take. If each were modeled out into the future with time and cost data, we should have the information we need to choose the path we wish to pursue. Without processes and tools like this, we would be flying blind.

Future Blog Posts

This discussion will be continued in future blogs to develop a better foundational understanding of the process and power of probabilistic modeling in our EVMS.

EVM Consulting - Decision Point

Good information sets the stage for good decisions. The IMS and the EVMS have sufficient information to help us model the pathways ahead of our critical decisions. We just need to learn to take advantage of what we have available to us.

Find out how an experienced Humphreys & Associates EVM Consultant can help you create a full future model and simulation of your most vital EVMS Systems. Contact Humphreys & Associates at (714) 685-1730 or email us.

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Hiring the Right EVM Professional

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Submarine on top of ocean with sailors on deck

EVM Hiring, Not Selling

You are searching for the right person to fill that critical EVM program management or project controls position on one of your newer or one of your tough projects. So, what does the interview sound like? Probably like so many I have witnessed. But there is a much better way to conduct the interview and get the right person.

Many of the interviews I have participated in consisted largely of the interviewer telling the potential candidate about the position, about the company, and almost making the interview a selling situation. It sometimes seemed like the theme was “How can we convince this person to come on board?”

Always Clarify

Of course, some time in the interview must be spent explaining the situation to the candidate’s satisfaction. You would not want to make an offer to someone only to have them come back at you expressing confusion about the position or the project. That happened to me years ago. I was interviewing with a major computer firm for the position of “program manager.” Obviously, the ad I answered, and the screening process were flawed. I arrived at the interview and within a few minutes the interviewing manager was commenting on the fact I had no software programming experience. They were looking for a manager for a software development (programming) effort. They did not even understand the term program manager as it related to project management. We agreed to end the interview on good terms although I am sure we both realized we had wasted a lot of time.

Often an interviewer will focus on the certifications the interviewee has achieved. If the person is a PMP from the PMI, that is a good thing. But more than once I have met and worked with people who are certified and credentialed, but who really have no earned value training and cannot get the job done in the real world. Be careful and dig deeper. The right interview can help do that for you.

Can They Get the Job Done?

But the most frequent observation I have made about a defective interview process is the failure to verify that the candidate can do the job. The best illustration of this is from the book “Peopleware” by Tom DeMarco and Timothy Lister. The example is in Chapter 16 and is called “Hiring a Juggler.” It presents the story of the hiring manager, it was the circus manager, asking a lot of questions about other circuses the juggler has worked for, the things the juggler can juggle, how many things can he keep in the air at one time, and so on. At the end of the interview, the manager is satisfied he has found his new juggler and offers him the job. The surprised juggler asks one question only, “Don’t you want to see me juggle?”

At H&A, when we are looking at new individuals for our scheduling practice, we actually give them a test. They are provided a written description of an interview with a CAM in which the CAM explains what is supposed to happen in his or her control account. From that written discussion, the interviewees are asked to get into the scheduling software with which they are proficient and build the plan described by the CAM. With that plan, they are asked to determine the end date, locate the critical path, and otherwise verify that the schedule is a high-quality schedule. In other words, we ask our interviewees to show us they can juggle.

EVM Expert Questions

So what kinds of things would you want to talk about in an interview for a project manager candidate, an EVMS candidate, or a scheduling candidate? What direction could you take in the interview that would be more oriented to seeing if the person can juggle? How about some of these questions? Or at least how about the general direction of these questions?

Question List

  1. In your opinion, who are the stakeholders for the project WBS?
  2. What are the pitfalls that you would encounter while building the right WBS? How can they impact your project?
  3. Tell me about the System Engineering Technical Review (SETR) process and how that would be part of your project?
  4. How would you assess whether the amount of Management Reserve withheld on your project was the right amount?
  5. What, from your experience, do you think is the single biggest project-killing issue, and how would you prevent or minimize it on your project?
  6. In addition to that issue, what are three more serious potential problems that can cause failure?
  7. What is total float (total slack) and how would you use that as a manager of a project?
  8. What is a “driving path” and why would that be important to you on your project?
  9. How would you evaluate a control account EAC on your project?
  10. When you issue ground rules for developing a new project plan, what confidence level do you set for duration estimates and cost estimates from your teams?
  11. What process would you recommend for developing the project-level best case, worst case, and most likely EACs?
  12. From your point of view, what are the main duties of a control account manager?
  13. What are some measures of cost and schedule performance-to-date in a control account and what do they mean to you as a manager?
  14. When a control account has a CPI (cumulative) of .75, and SPI (cumulative) of 1.1, and a VAC of -20%, what does it mean?
  15. What are some of the Generally Accepted Scheduling Principles (GASP)?
  16. What is TCPI and what do you use it for?
  17. Can you explain some of the key measures in a project schedule that you can use to assess its quality?
  18. Please explain how a Schedule Risk Assessment is conducted and how the results are used.
  19. What professional organizations do you belong to?
  20. What is the last book you read about project management?

Extend

Now that you have had a chance to think about those questions, undoubtedly others have come to mind. An interview with the give-and-take generated from discussing a list of questions like those would be very revealing. At the end of that interview you should know if the interviewee can juggle. You will know where they have good understanding and where they might not be ready.

Does the interviewee have to be exactly right on every topic? Not at all. But the answers and the discussion can help you assess how much development is still needed for this candidate to be able to shine in the open position you are trying to fill. Not everyone knows everything. Experience is a great teacher, but it comes from the situations where the interviewee has been directly exposed. Or perhaps from their leaning.

Take a moment and think about the interviewing practices at your company. Are they like the ones we just discussed? Can they be improved? Where are they weak? Where are they strong?

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Project Management: Earned Value Consulting; Could You Use Some?

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Failed Projects

A recent article discussed the results of a survey on the reasons that projects failed. The definition of failure was that the project was abandoned. Abandonment does not occur frequently in the world of government projects; especially defense projects where there should be strong “must have” needs driving the project. These projects tend to persist until completed even though the outcomes are not satisfactory. But there is a lot to learn from the list of reasons for failure.

Of the sixteen reasons listed, the top four had to do with changes to the environment that had given rise to the project. For example, changes in the company priorities was the most often cited reason for abandonment. In that same vein were issues with changing objectives and inaccurate definition of requirements. These types of failures are not topics for this blog since they do not immediately involve execution of the project.

Execution Problems

Lower on the list of those environment related reasons for failure were the ones more related to execution problems. These are of significant interest to a project management using an earned value consulting company such as Humphreys & Associates (H&A). These reasons related more to issues of poor project management that could have been corrected. In this area were reasons like “poor change management,” “inaccurate cost estimates,” “inaccurate time estimates,” and “inexperienced project management.”

The answers given in a survey situation depend very much on the mindset of the person responding. Is the reason really “inaccurate cost estimates” or should it have been “failure to execute to the estimate”? How many times have you seen a problem in execution “swept under the carpet” as being an inaccurate estimate or plan? One of these two answers points to the estimating system and process while the other points to project management. The estimates were generated; and, at some point, they were deemed to be sufficiently detailed to launch the project. If a scrubbed and blessed estimate is “inaccurate” that would still be a failure of project management. If the problem were really a failure to execute, then how easy would it be to blame the problem on poor estimates? This blog will discuss the cited failures as if they were execution failures.

Earned Value Management (EVM) Consultant Specialists

There are situations in life where the need for specialized advice is common and well accepted by us all. When your doctor is unsure of the medical issues, the doctor will send you to a specialist. The reason is obvious. The specialist has learned so much more about a specific problem and has so much experience diagnosing and treating the problem that it would be foolish not to secure the services of that specialist. In fact, it might be malpractice. A project management consultant can be thought of much like a medical specialist.

There are similar situations in business where the need for specialized knowledge is critical. Large companies tend to have in-house legal departments to cover the day-to-day legal issues and tasks that are central to their businesses. However, the need to go to outside counsel for large or unusual issues is accepted. Companies do not hesitate to engage the services of outside law firms to help them through troubled times. Project management consultants are like outside counsel.

What if there were a project management or earned value management situation you have never encountered before? A good example would be the times that H&A has been called in to help clients navigate the unhappy circumstances of needing to go over-target. Going through the over-target-baseline (OTB) or over-target-schedule (OTS) process is not a common experience. It is a tense time when careers can be on the line and the company reputation might also be at risk. It takes specialized knowledge to get it right. In some cases, it even takes the objective view of an outsider to help make the right decisions.

Specialized Knowledge

Another example of specialized knowledge being crucial is when the customer has deemed some issue on the project to be deficient. In some situations, a customer’s Corrective Action Request (CAR) can result in cost penalties and damaged reputations; possibly even worse consequences could result. Engaging the services of an EVM consultant with experience in identifying problems, building Corrective Action Plans (CAP)s, and leading or helping implementing the corrective actions is often a valuable and necessary action. Ask yourself how smart it would be to assume that those who were involved in causing the issue would be capable of creating a satisfactory solution.

These scenarios are aligned with the idea of project management consulting being something you only need in a crisis. There are other non-crisis needs for specialized support. Often H&A is engaged simply to help a client prepare a proposal. A proposal situation puts heavy demands on the company staffing levels and can require areas of specialized knowledge not available in the company. What if the company has never created a fully compliant Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) and they could use help the first time? What if there are not enough trained and experienced schedulers to work on the proposal? What if the company does not have a documented project management system?

Make or Break Opportunities

Projects can be huge and risky. They can be make-or-break opportunities to a company. Where so much can depend on good project management, smart companies recognize the need for an outside opinion and outside talent. Just like the internal legal department, the internal project management group sometimes needs to call on outside subject matter experts. While it might be obvious, let’s look at some reasons why this is true.

There are more ordinary everyday reasons to engage a project management consultant. Perhaps an organization just managed to win a new project bigger than any they have won before. In this case, they may not be ready to handle the project in terms of experience, systems, and even just talented headcount. A project management consulting company such as H&A can bring solutions to your earned value woes. It can also provide temporary training staff to get things going until the client is ready to take over.

Poor Communication

Let’s get back to the survey of reasons that projects failed. Are there issues on the list where project management consulting could have made a difference? Imagine an improved project management process and staff after a period of consulting to support creating or improving systems and training personnel?

The fifth most frequent reason for failure is “poor communication.” A good project management system with trained personnel is all about communication. Communication of plans, communication of progress, communication of issues, and communication of corrective actions are all actions required in a project management system. Quite often the problem of “poor change management,” cited as the sixth most common reason for failure, is reduced or eliminated after using the consulting services of a specialist?

What about the twelfth cited problem of “inadequate resource forecasting”? Would a well built and maintained resource-loaded Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) go a long way in providing forecasts of resource needs and the impacts of not having the resources? In fact, a proper IMS would help with several of the cited reasons for failure, such as inaccurate duration estimates. In fact, the application of a process, such as Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA), with the help of an experienced consultant can identify such issues in advance while there is still time to take action.

Earned Value Training

Disregarding the threat of failure as a motivator, the need for constant improvement should be enough reason to consider a project management consultant. We can all laugh at the time-worn clichés of “not-invented-here” or “we’ve never done it that way;” however, these are clichés for a reason. There is resistance to outside help and there is resistance to change. But outside help can be a great logjam breaker. An experienced and knowledgeable consultant can be your voice when you need someone who has, to use another cliché, “been there and done that.”

In fact, our consultants can laugh when they say they have “been there” and they have more than a T-shirt to prove it.

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